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博弈加劇 會成為豬價走勢的關鍵嗎?

放大字體  縮小字體 發布日期:2016-11-19  瀏覽次數:840165
內容摘要:  全國外三元生豬平均價穩中小幅上漲。分省區來看,上漲地區有天津、河北、上海、江蘇、河南、甘肅、新疆等省(區)市,上漲幅度
   全國外三元生豬平均價穩中小幅上漲。分省區來看,上漲地區有天津、河北、上海、江蘇、河南、甘肅、新疆等省(區)市,上漲幅度0.05-0.1元/kg,其他地區維穩。整體價格緩慢上漲。

農民信息網 www.6i47.com   供應基本面變化的幅度并不會太大,但是進口豬肉是不確定因素。需求旺季定然是利好因素,但是其利好的程度是大是小存在不確定性,可以參考往年。

  再者,我們來看看天氣因素。天氣因素一是影響出欄,二是需求,三是疫情。

  雨雪天氣,生豬出欄、運輸將再次受阻,屠宰企業采購不暢,豬價多半保持上漲。而天氣晴好,有利生豬出欄、運輸,前期積壓的部分豬源得到釋放,屠企收購順暢豬價出現下跌。

  雨雪寒潮天氣雖然能夠提振一時的豬價但也擠壓了風險,刺激需求的同時也帶來了疫情風險。因此,我們一定要避免后市的集中出欄行為,一旦形成,屠宰企業必然會狠心壓價,一旦豬價出現下跌,養殖戶恐慌拋售的做法也就坐實了。

  東北市場出現了一定的壓價現象,豬價上漲的潛力正在逐漸消耗,目前整體價格穩定。山東出欄價穩中調整,豬場主流出欄價在8.2-8.65元/斤。河南豬場有著一定的挺價現象,生豬收購價窄幅微漲。

  目前國內生豬供應量和需求量均表現穩定,屠宰企業銷量稍回升,但采購量仍無明顯提升;養殖戶壓欄惜售情緒猶存,生豬出欄體重有所增加,但仍在正常范圍內,短期內豬價仍有緩慢回升的空間。在消費端,新發地消息,上周新發地市場白條豬批發的平均價受到需求轉旺的拉動,價格出現明顯上漲并且處于相對劇烈的調整之中。白條豬日均上市量環比微幅增加,但與去年同期相比降幅有所放大。總體上說,是需求拉動了肉價,是肉價拉動了豬價。

  但養殖端也要看清今年的豬肉消費形勢,由于經濟下行、肉類消費品種增多等因素,豬肉消費有所減少,同時,進口豬肉的大幅增加也在填補豬肉供應的缺口。南方腌臘肉、北方殺年豬是今年最后一次集中消費,過后豬價或有回降風險,要謹防集中出欄的風險。

  博弈加劇,眼下正是豬價走勢的關鍵時刻,養殖端要保持平常心進行理性思考,結合當地的行情來壓欄出欄,讓養豬利潤最大化。

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